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Monday 3rd April 2006

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Minor League Preview - Altoona
By Wilbur Miller

Altoona this year will be reaping the "fruits" of the Pirates' scouting efforts over the last several years

The team will largely be comprised of organizational players and veteran free agents, as there was very little prospect talent last year in "Class A"
The Curve should have a few prospects, but most come with large caveats and probably all will be repeating the level
It's telling that only three players - Chris Hernandez, Jonathan Albaladejo and Josh Shortslef - will be making their debuts in "AA"

The lineup figures to be solid but not outstanding, as power will likely be in short supply
The bullpen should be strong, but the rotation could be a sore point

Catcher

The Curve's starter should have been Mike McCuistion, a dark horse prospect coming off a solid year at Lynchburg, but he'll be out until late in the season, at best, as the result of shoulder surgery
As a LH-hitting catcher with a pretty good bat, he'd have been an interesting player to watch
Instead, Altoona will have veterans Carlos Maldonado starting and Octavio Martinez backing up
Maldonado is returning to the Curve after a decent all-around 2005 performance
Martinez is a veteran minor league backup

Corner Infield

The Curve will probably line up several minor league veterans here - Simon Pond or Brett Roneberg at 1B, and Travis Chapman at 3B
Pond and Roneberg are very similar players
Both struggled extensively in the lower minors before developing into solid, if unspectacular, hitters at the "AA" level
Roneberg, who may also be in the OF, spent 2003 at Altoona, then missed the 2005 season with a shoulder injury
He's had only five ABs in "AAA", while Pond has spent the equivalent of about a season there and got in a little time in the majors
Roneberg will open the season on the disabled list, so Pond will be the starter initially

Chapman may be the most interesting player among the Altoona veterans
He was regarded as a good UT-type prospect with the Phillies, but missed most of 2004-05 with shoulder injuries
If he's not healthy, the Curve could turn to either of two players slated initially for Lynchburg - a Dutchman, Vince Rooi and a Belgian (at least by birth), Brandt Ust
Ust has had some success in "AA" in the past, although he had a mediocre year last year in "High A"
He'd be the more likely of the two to be promoted

Middle Infield

Altoona's regular middle IF from the latter part of 2005 will return
Both 2B Craig Stansberry and SS Javier Guzman are now on the 40-man roster, but both experienced problems with "AA" pitching last year
They'll be trying to adjust well enough to upper level pitching to show that they're more than fringe prospects
The infield backups figure to be a pair of prospects who may have hit a wall in "AA"
Taber Lee and Brandon Chaves began 2005 as the middle IF regulars in "AA", but lost their jobs when Stansberry and Guzman were promoted from Lynchburg, which is where Lee and Chaves ended up
Of the two, Chaves is probably the more likely to re-establish himself as a fringe prospect, as he was recovering from knee surgery last year
Lee simply seems to have been overdrafted in Round 3

Outfield

The Altoona OF looks to be a mixture of free agents, organizational players and overage prospects, and will probably be short on power
The starters are expected to be Vic Buttler in CF, and Rafael Alvarez and Adam Boeve in the corners
The only one who's arguably a prospect is Boeve, who is 25
He put up big power numbers in "Class A", but gets little respect from scouts and struggled with offspeed stuff in a couple months in "AA" last year
He also made a mediocre showing in the Arizona Fall League, and needs to earn a mid-season promotion to get himself on the prospect map
Alvarez spent half a year in "AA" with Minnesota long ago, before moving on to independent ball and the Mexican League, where he put up good numbers
The Pirates consider him a very solid hitter
Buttler opened 2005 in Altoona, but was sent to Hickory to help the Crawdads' pitiful offense, then began struggling with injuries
He's probably making the transition to organizational player
The reserves initially will be Rich Thompson and Chaz Lytle
Thompson, who could also eventually see time in "AAA", will be trying to re-establish himself as a prospect after getting demoted from "AAA" last year, then posting mediocre numbers with the Curve
It's possible he'll play semi-regularly, with one of the other outfielders serving as DH
Lytle is an organizational backup
Other players who could see time in the OF at some point during the season are Pond, Roneberg, Jeff Cook, Bobby Kingsbury, and Nyjer Morgan
Cook is a free agent signee coming off a strong year in "High A" in the Diamondbacks' system
He did well enough last year seemingly to earn a shot at "AA", but the Pirates probably acquired him to boost what figures to be a woeful Lynchburg offense
Kingsbury has shown some power while moving up slowly through the system, but he missed half of 2005 with injuries
Neither Cook nor Kingsbury is on the Lynchburg opening roster, however, so it's possible that either of them has gotten hurt or been released
Morgan is a speedster who had a mediocre second half with Lynchburg last year after losing the first half to injury
Finally, another organizational backup who could see time at Altoona is Matt Meath

Rotation

The Altoona rotation is likely to be weak, as it'll be manned by some combination of struggling or dubious prospects and questionable veterans
The most noteworthy is Matt Peterson, who was one of the team's better prospects until problems with his delivery and lost velocity led to a very poor 2005 and his removal from the roster
This will be his third year in "AA" and he needs to get himself straightened out quickly enough to earn a promotion
Two other spots are expected to go to pitchers who arguably qualify as fringe prospects simply because they're big left-handers - Shane Youman and Josh Shortslef (not to be confused with Josh Sharpless)
Youman got some attention from the organization, despite a lackluster career in relief, when he put together an outstanding series of games as an emergency starter late in 2005
He didn't help himself, however, with a horrid showing in the Arizona Fall League
Shortslef has good stuff, but has struggled throughout his career with inconsistency and injuries
Also expected to start for the Curve are Landon Jacobsen and Mike Connolly, who'll both be returning for their fourth seasons in Altoona
Jacobsen struggled with shoulder problems during much of his time there
The lefty Connolly must be disappointed, as he bounced back well from elbow problems last year and reached "AAA" late in the year
Various veterans will get the rest of the starts
The best of these is probably Chris Rojas, who's been a solid "AA" pitcher for several years, but he may be hurt as he's not on the roster
Another possibility is Jason Roach, a failed Mets prospect who pitched poorly both in "AAA" (for Tampa Bay) and at Altoona last year, but was re-signed
It's also likely that Altoona at some point will get some overflow from pitchers who don't make the Indianapolis roster, or who get sent down when there are openings
Some possibilities are Nerio Rodriguez, Ron Chiavacci, Britt Reames, and Marty McLeary

Bullpen

The Altoona bullpen figures to be a strength, at least until promotions start taking a toll
The featured reliever will be Josh Sharpless
He's coming off a breakout 2005 season, although he needs to show his elbow is fine and to improve his control
He'll be in line for a quick promotion if he fares well
The two lefties will be James Johnson and Brady Borner
Johnson is a solid veteran
Borner is coming off an outstanding "AA" campaign, but is a soft tosser and doesn't seem to get taken seriously as a prospect
The fact that he'll be 27 in April probably doesn't help
Altoona may have two RH relievers who could establish themselves as prospects
Jon Albaladejo has disappointed the organization, as he's failed to get much out of a sometimes-mid-90s fastball, but he made strides when he moved to the Lynchburg bullpen last year
Chris Hernandez is a sinkerball pitcher who's put up impressive numbers at times, usually as a closer
He may have gotten himself on the map with a big year in Venezuelan winter ball
Further possibilities are Jorge Vasquez, Brandon Knight and Melqui Torres
Vasquez appeared to be an interesting pickup going into training camp, but he struggled with his control
Knight is a former Rangers and Yankees prospect who spent three years in Japan
Torres, Salomon's brother, was under consideration for the "AA" roster but is not on either it or the Lynchburg roster, so he may have been released

Projections - Position Players

C - Maldonado
1B/DH - Roneberg, Pond
2B - Stansberry
3B - Chapman
SS - Guzman
OF - Boeve, Buttler, Alvarez, Thompson

Projections - Rotation

Peterson
Youman
Shortslef
Connolly
Roach
Jacobsen

Projections - Key Relievers

Sharpless
Hernandez
Albaladejo
Vasquez

Update - Thursday 4th May 2006

Altoona - Who's Hot

Rotation


Four-fifths of Altoona's rotation has been outstanding
Josh Shortslef, Landon Jacobsen, Matt Peterson and Jason Roach have combined to go 12-5, 2.30, with a 1.08 WHIP
Peterson may be salvaging his prospect status, as he's posted a 1.01 WHIP and seemingly solved his control problems, with only 6 walks in 27.2 IP
He has only 17 Ks, though, so he may simply have turned into Justin Reid
The real story is Shortslef, a 6'4", very athletic lefty who struggled through the low minors with injuries and inconsistency
Through 5 starts he has a 0.97 WHIP and 7.14 K/9

Bullpen

Most of the Curve's bullpen has been outstanding as well
Josh Sharpless has been the primary closer, going 2-0, 1.42, 6 saves
He's continued to post silly peripheral numbers, with a 0.95 WHIP and 13.5 K/9, although somehow he's allowed two whole runs
Chris Hernandez, a changeup specialist, may be establishing himself as a prospect
He doesn't have Sharpless' dominant stuff, but he's posted an even lower ERA (0.69) and WHIP (0.62), and has issued no walks while fanning 14 in 13 IP
Jorge Vazquez has allowed only 4 hits while fanning just a hair under two per inning (20 in 10.1 IP), but his 7 walks have come in bunches as he's had a couple of control meltdowns
Shane Youman (0.65 WHIP) and Jon Albaladejo (1.24) have done a good job of keeping runners off base, but neither is striking out many batters (2.95 K/9 for Youman, 5.87 for Albaladejo)
Veteran Brandon Knight (1.98 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 21 Ks in 13.2 IP) has been outstanding

Adam Boeve

Boeve had a strong April is now hitting 355/417/505
He's not hitting for the power he did in the lower minors, though, as he has only 3 HRs and 7 total extra-base hits in 93 ABs
His plate discipline also hasn't been as good as it was at lower levels, with 10 BBs and 24 Ks
Boeve is limited to an OF corner, so he has to hit for more power to be a viable prospect

Brandon Chaves

Chaves is probably making life tough for Altoona manager Tim Leiper, as he's seriously outhitting erstwhile prospects Craig Stansberry and Javier Guzman
Previously a good-glove, weak-bat middle infielder, Chaves is now hitting 328/411/475
In fact, Leiper has played him at 3B and even CF, presumably to get his bat in the lineup

Veteran Hitters

In lieu of actual prospects, the Pirates added a number of veteran hitters to the Curve, and those hitters are serving them well
Rafael Alvarez (323/382/495) and Simon Pond (253/358/473) have been solid all year,
while Brett Roneberg has recently returned from the disabled list to hit 395/410/632

Altoona - Who's Not

Erstwhile Left-Handed Pitching Prospects


Mike Connolly and Brady Borner are both experienced farmhands who've struggled to get on the prospect map despite mostly very good performances
Unfortunately, this year both have run into problems
Connolly is now 2-2, 6.11, with a 1.64 WHIP
The bottom has fallen out for Borner following an outstanding 2005 season, as he now has a 9.90 ERA and 2.50 WHIP

Forty-Man Roster Position Players

Craig Stansberry and Javier Guzman are not making the team's decision to add them to the roster look good
Stansberry is hitting 239/330/391
He's cut down a lot on his Ks, with only 13 in 92 ABs, against 11 walks
Considering that he played most of last year in "AA", however, he needed to have a good start
A legitimate prospect would be dominating this level by now
Guzman is struggling even more, hitting 231/265/308, with 5 walks and 19 Ks in 91 ABs
He also has 7 errors
Between these two, Mike Johnston and Rajai Davis, the Pirates shouldn't have trouble making roster moves for quite a while